时间：2026-04-04 10:32:43 来源：Matrix Risk Lab

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)\n\nAs the new quarter gets underway,data driven crypto order management system with daily reports the crypto market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a bit more cautious about bitcoin BTC $ 66,277.99 than ether (ETH).\n\nYou can see this in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions go to hedge risk or generate extra returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price drops (puts) or bet on price increases (calls), depending on their outlook.\n\nRight now, one key metric, called a risk reversal, is negative for both bitcoin and ether across different time frames. In simple terms, that means puts, or downside protection, is more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for put options, it usually signals lingering fears of a price drop. That's perfectly normal, considering the brutal downtrend in bitcoin and ether since October.\n\nBut here’s where it gets interesting: that caution is stronger for bitcoin. Put options on bitcoin are more expensive than those on ether across all time frames, suggesting traders are more worried about BTC’s downside risk.\n\nThe difference becomes even clearer when zooming further out. Longer-dated ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while bitcoin’s equivalent options carry a much steeper premium for downside protection.\n\nIn short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. That would signal a bullish trend change in the ether-to-bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downtrend since August (see the technical analysis section).\n\nEther has risen 5% over the past 24 hours, outpacing bitcoin BTC $ 66,277.99 , XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and the CoinDesk 20 Index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum-computing-resistant technology have rallied by 20% or more.\n\nAnalysts said a firm breakout in BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 will likely strengthen the bullish momentum.\n\nIn traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the fourth straight day while futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose nearly 0.5%. Together, these things point to risk-on sentiment ahead. Stay alert\n\nRead more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today\n\nFor a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ".\n\nCrypto Treasury Companies\n\nSpot BTC ETFs\n\nSpot ETH ETFs\n\nSource: Farside Investors\n\nTrump says Iran war could end in 'two weeks', with or without deal (euronews): Trump, who will address the nation Wednesday night, said the war in Iran could end in two to three weeks. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said its war on Tehran will continue.\n\nIran fires missiles across Middle East as Trump signals exit (Bloomberg): Iran fired missiles across the Middle East while Israel and the U.S. kept up their bombardment of the Islamic Republic, even as Trump fueled market optimism by signaling he’s preparing to end the war.\n\nUAE wants to force Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight (The Wall Street Journal): The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to join the war.\n\nCrypto asset manager CoinShares to list on Nasdaq after $1.2 billion SPAC deal (CoinDesk): CoinShares, a leading European digital asset manager with over $6 billion under management, is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol CSHR.

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